Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
