Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
